Forex Analysis & Reviews: 21.11.2022 - Investors believe that India...

21.11.2022 06:48 PM

Investors believe that India is the new China

According to the Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study, India has risen to second place behind the United States as an attractive investment market this year despite crop failure and rupee depreciation.

State pension funds and independent welfare funds, which are looking for long-term goals, have expressed a particular interest in the area.

Additionally, the number of sovereign wealth funds has steadily increased over the past ten years; of the twelve established in Africa, 11 have a strategic mandate to boost the regional economy. African investors are participating in the global market and investing their fair share of capital.

Independent investors, who frequently operate in the style of family offices and currently oversee assets valued at about $ 33 trillion, now affirm India's top spot in investments. They note that the industry has experienced a sharp rise in transfers to private markets.

Due to the protracted bull market that resulted from the global financial crisis, sovereign investors have had a tailwind for the past ten years and have been investing with their noses to the wind. The strategy for investing has changed now. Investors increasingly use global analysis in addition to technical analysis, additional parameters, and in-depth research on specific investment targets.

Invesco estimates that over the past ten years, sovereign investors have earned an average annual return of 6.5%, with sovereign wealth funds turning out to be even more profitable than expected after earning 10% in 2021. Though higher inflation and tighter monetary policy will hurt expected long-term earnings, 2022 may turn out to be a turning point for the entire industry. Additionally, traders face challenging tasks due to the markets' volatile response.

Therefore, balancing the portfolio to lessen reliance on the US markets is one of the challenges facing fund managers this year because such a focus leaves investments vulnerable to corrections. The main investment destination is still the United States, but traders constantly search for other intriguing application points in the Asian and European continents.

And whereas the UK was the most sought-after location in 2014 and even in 2021, investors are now looking for targets in emerging markets.

Due to the ongoing battle against coronavirus outbreaks, which necessitate quarantines and make the region unpredictable in business terms, China is anticipated to lag in this area.

Therefore, India is anticipated to surpass China as the most well-liked emerging market among developing nations, moving from ninth place in 2014 to second place in 2022.

The main reason, of course, is that Asian market-focused funds are steadily decreasing their positions in China. Investors also praised India's strong demographics and successful economic reforms, which contrasted sharply with China's long-term decline.

China came in sixth, partly due to the increased centralization of power evident at the most recent Communist Party congress in China and the government's announced attack on Taiwan.

I realize that only some things are as rosy as it seems; in fact, we can see a trend overall for the past three quarters, half of which was dominated by bullish sentiment. Given the recent crop failures and the pressure the dollar puts on the rupee, India's development may start to stall when fixed income returns to positive territory. I wonder if 2023 will be a difficult year for India, despite the study's prediction that emerging markets will profit from the most recent market shift. The rupee is already soaring, and this trend will stay the same to impact the volume of capital investments. Despite this, it makes sense to pay attention to India, given the economic recovery.

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Forecast

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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