Forex Analysis & Reviews: 24.01.2023 - The euro overlooked the...

24.01.2023 12:44 PM

The euro overlooked the considerable recovery in eurozone activity.

The unexpected return of growth in the eurozone private sector at the start of 2023 caused the euro to react somewhat subduedly, which is highly positive and supports previous claims made by European leaders that the area is prepared for a soft landing after high-interest rates and high inflation.

The composite purchasing managers' index increased to 50.2 points in January, above experts' predictions of a value of 49.8 points by a significant margin. It is noteworthy that the indicator has already been above the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction for the first time since June of last year.

The future of the eurozone economy is being encouraged by several factors, including a decrease in inflation, a warmer-than-usual winter in Europe, and the loosening of supply chain restrictions.

Chris Williamson, the chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that although the economy has stabilized, the region can avoid a recession but has not yet resolved its issues. The increase in selling price inflation for both products and services puts pressure on the European Central Bank to further tighten monetary policy, he said. Demand is still declining; it's just doing so more slowly.

Remember that the European Central Bank has already raised interest rates by 250 basis points and will do so again the following week. It's still unknown what will occur at this meeting. While more hardline Governing Council members are calling for more dramatic changes, some CEOs are advocating for a more gradual approach.

The argument in favor of higher interest rates, according to Williamson, is strengthened by evidence of wage growth and accelerating employment growth. These factors have recently pushed up prices.

It is important to note that the composite indices for the two biggest economies, Germany and France, were still below 50 points.

In light of this, it is not unexpected that yesterday's report showed a rise in consumer confidence in the eurozone to its highest level since February of last year. This demonstrates the region's resiliency as it attempts to avert a recession this year. The measure increased from -22.2 in December to -20.9 in January, according to the European Commission. This is a little weaker than what economists predicted, who were looking for a rise to -20.

According to Valdis Dombrovskis, vice president of the European Commission, lower gas prices and more aid could prevent a recession in the European Union.

Regarding the technical analysis of EUR/USD, there is still demand for the single currency, and there is a potential that monthly and annual highs will continue to be updated. Staying above 1.0850 is important to achieve this, which will cause the trading instrument to surge to the area of 1.0890. Above this point, you can easily reach 1.0930 and update 1.0970 in the near future. Only the breakdown of support at 1.0850 will put more pressure on the pair and drive EUR/USD to 1.0805, with the possibility of falling to a minimum of 1.0770 if the trading instrument declines.

Regarding the GBP/USD technical picture, the demand for the pound is declining. Buyers must continue to trade over 1.2380 to keep their advantage. However, only the breakdown of resistance at 1.2440 will make it more likely that the recovery will continue to the area of 1.2500, after which it will be feasible to discuss a more abrupt move of the pound up to the area of 1.2550. After the bears seize control of 1.2380, it is feasible to discuss the pressure on the trading instrument returning. The GBP/USD will be forced back to 1.2325 and 1.2260 as a result, hitting the bulls' positions.

你今天已经点赞上这篇文章了

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

If you have any content questions, please contact editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025

该作者的更多文章

电子邮件订阅

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

选择时间框架

分钟

小时

天

周

开始交易

通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。

下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。

推荐文章

EUR/GBP. 分析與預測

美中談判第二輪結果

美國與中國：向前邁出一小步。接下來會是什麼？（對歐元/美元和紐元/美元貨幣對的逆轉和下跌的潛力）

市場接近它的界限

6月11日該注意什麼？新手必看的基本事件解析

GBP/USD 概述 - 6月11日。通脹將產生什麼影響？

歐元/美元概況 – 6月11日：即使有談判消息也未能幫助美元

日本希望貿易談判取得積極成果——否則，經濟衰退和通貨膨脹上升即將來臨

GBP/USD：勞動力市場降溫，但英鎊堅守陣地

美元已經注定要衰落，雖然它還沒有意識到這一點

Top analytics