Forex Analysis & Reviews: 08.04.2019 - Brexit: May does not want to...

08.04.2019 10:40 AM

Brexit: May does not want to make concessions to the Labor Party, and the euro continues to be traded in the channel

Euro attempted growth on Friday after the release of data on industrial production in Germany, but a report on the good state of the American labor market returned to the market equilibrium.

According to the data, industrial production in Germany grew in February of this year. Growth was due to support for construction while manufacturing production declined.

The report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany indicated that industrial production in February increased by 0.7% compared with January. Economists had forecast an increase in production by 0.5% in February. Production in the construction sector immediately increased by 6.8% compared with January, while manufacturing production fell by 0.2%. Compared with February 2018, industrial production decreased by 0.4%.

Greece lends money again. Last Friday, eurozone finance ministers decided to approve Greece's payment of 1 billion euros. Let me remind you that the Greek authorities made such a request and after analyzing the current economic situation, as well as certain economic reforms, financial assistance was approved.

The current state of the US labor market raises no questions.

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of non-farm jobs in March 2019, contrary to economists' expectations, increased by 196,000. Unemployment remained at 3.8%.

A good sign of the state of the labor market was the growth of average hourly earnings in the private sector, which in March increased by 3.2% compared to the same period of the previous year. Economists had forecast that the number of jobs in March would increase by 175,000, while unemployment would remain at 3.8%.

The slowdown in consumer lending is a bad signal for the American economy. As indicated in the report of the Federal Reserve System, unsecured consumer lending in February increased by only 4.52%, or by 15.19 billion US dollars compared with January. Economists had expected a rise in lending in February at 17.75 billion dollars. According to revised data, the January increase was 5.3% per annum.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. The bears have failed to consolidate below the middle of the side channel in the area of 1.1210, and today, this is their main task. Only under this condition will the pressure on risky assets continue, which may lead to a renewal of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1185. In the scenario of the upward correction of the euro, the upper limit of the side channel in the area of 1.1250 remains a good resistance.

The British pound fell seriously on Friday after the news that British Prime Minister Theresa May did not intend to make major amendments to the Brexit agreement. This was stated by representatives of the opposition Labor Party, with whom May is now engaged in active negotiations. Let me remind you that the British Prime Minister asked for a postponement from the EU representatives on Brexit until June 30 to agree on the basic conditions with the Labor Party to ratify the agreement on withdrawing from the union by the country's parliament.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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