Forex Analysis & Reviews: 24.05.2019 - Forecast for EUR/USD and...

24.05.2019 09:14 AM

Forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 24. The euro and the pound received a gift from US macroeconomic statistics

EUR/USD – 4H.

The euro/dollar continued the process of falling towards the retracement level to 127.2% (1.1102). However, after the formation of a bullish divergence, the MACD indicator reversed in favor of the euro currency and began the process that subsequently ended with the closure above the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1177). The formation of bullish divergence coincided with the release of business activity indices in America, which were all much worse than the forecasts. It was these indices that caused the rejection of new purchases of the US dollar among traders, which is so necessary for the euro. Thanks to these statistics, the euro was able to breathe freely, at least for a while. As a result, on May 24, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). But today, during the US session, another important economic indicator for the US will be released – orders for long-term goods, which can just help the EU currency to consolidate yesterday's success, but only if the statistics from the United States today are weak.

The Fibo grid was built on the extremums from March 7, 2019, March 20, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair closed above the retracement level of 100.0%, which indicated the desire for growth. Thus, I recommend buying the euro today with a target of 1.1241, a protective order under the Fibo level of 100.0%. I recommend selling the pair again after closing the quotes below the level of 100.0% with the goal of a correction level of 1.1102. Do not forget about the important report from the US today.

GBP/USD – 4H.

The pound/dollar pair reacted to the reports from America on business activity much more modestly. Practically didn't react at all. Once again, we can see that there is no demand for the pound, even when there is a favorable fundamental background for it. And the reason lies in the same Brexit. According to the latest data, Theresa May can resign today, and what will happen next is unknown. Thus, the outcome of Brexit is now even harder to say, and the pound continues to feel worse than ever. With grief in half, the pair closed above the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2661), which allows traders to count on continued growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 61.8% (1.2796), however, given the current mood of the currency market, it is more likely to resume the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.2437), even despite the bullish divergence in the MACD indicator.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

GBP/USD – 1H.

On the hourly chart, the pound slightly "rose", but hardly for long. First, the bullish divergence sent the pound quotes to the retracement level of 161.8% (1.2673), but the pair's rebound from this level and the formation of bearish divergence at the CCI indicator allow traders to expect a resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 200.0% (1.2554). Theresa May canceled the Brexit vote earlier scheduled for early June. What could it mean, given all the information about her possible resignation in the coming days? Resignation – is logical, but what awaits Brexit and the whole of the UK, it becomes more difficult to say. The most logical thing for the new government of the country will be to recognize that there will be no orderly exit, and leave the EU on any terms or completely abandon the exit. Such events could support the pound.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums from April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations

The GBP/USD pair can continue the process of falling, so I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.2554 with a stop loss order above the level of 161.8%, as the rebound from the level of 161.8% is executed and bearish divergence is formed. I recommend buying the pair in very small volumes at the close above the Fibo level of 161.8% (hourly chart) with a target of 1.2782 and a protective order under the level of 1.2673.

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Technical analysis

Samir Klishi,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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