Forex Analysis & Reviews: 05.06.2019 - Forecast for EUR/USD and...

05.06.2019 09:12 AM

Forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 5. Jerome Powell admits the rate cut in the future

EUR/USD – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair retains the probability of continued growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1281) and growth in general after fixing above the correction level of 76.4% (1.1241). Yesterday was marked by two quite important events. First, inflation in the European Union. According to forecasts, the consumer price index was supposed to fall to 1.4% in May, in fact, it fell to 1.2%, that is, it was lower than the already weak forecasts. Oddly enough, but traders did not rush to get rid of the European currency. Small sales followed, but the Forex market preferred to wait for the evening comments of Jerome Powell. And the Fed Chairman gave food for thought with his speech. Powell said that the possibility of reducing the key rate in the future is not excluded, which in recent days has been actively increased. He also said that, perhaps, in the future, we will need tools to stimulate the economy, if the overall economic situation continued to deteriorate. At the same time, Powell did not say that the stimulation of the economy is required already. But the markets took this information negatively, and the euro managed to avoid a fall. The consolidation of the EUR/USD pair under the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to still count on a slight drop in the direction of the level of 100.0% (1.1177).

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair closed above the correction level of 76.4%. Thus, I recommend buying the euro with a target of 1.1281, a protective order under the Fibo level of 76.4%. I recommend selling the EUR/USD pair after closing the quotes below the level of 76.4% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1177 and a stop-loss order above 1.1241.

GBP/USD – 4H.

The GBP/USD pair continues the process of growth towards the correctional level of 61.8% (1.2796) after consolidation above the level of 76.4% (1.2661). Donald Trump, who continues to be in London on an official visit, has already promised the UK an "excellent" trade deal as soon as the country leaves the European Union. According to Trump, the UK deserves a "special" place in the world, and Theresa May has done a great job as Prime Minister. Trump expects that Theresa May will not leave his post until the completion of Brexit. Trump's interests are clear, he wants Britain to leave the EU as soon as possible, and without any agreements with Brussels. If the new Prime Minister will be Boris Johnson, a former Foreign Minister, then there is nothing to worry about Trump, since Johnson himself is a supporter of fast Brexit. The pound sterling is still growing on this news, but the growth is very weak. Traders are still afraid of serious purchases of English currency. There are no emerging divergences on the current chart. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.2437).

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

GBP/USD – 1H.

As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the English currency, after the formation of a bullish divergence from the CCI indicator, and the closing above the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2673). As a result, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.2782). The bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed to expect some fall, but within an hour its peak can be passed, which will lead to its cancellation.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair performed a consolidation above the correction level of 1.2673. I recommend buying the pair with a target of 1.2782, with stop-loss level below 1.2673. I recommend selling the pair at the close of quotations under the Fibo level of 161.8% (hourly chart) with a target of 1.2554 and a protective order above the level of 1.2673.

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Technical analysis

Samir Klishi,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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