empty
31.05.2023 05:44 PM
EUR/USD. Analysis for May 31. Inflation in Germany is declining rapidly

This image is no longer relevant

The wave labeling on the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair continues to be non-standard and has not changed in recent weeks. The quotes continue to move away from the previously reached highs, so the three-wave upward structure can be considered complete. The entire ascending trend segment could form a five-wave corrective pattern, but at the moment, I expect the formation of a downward trend segment, which is likely also to be a three-wave structure. I have regularly mentioned that I expect the pair to be near the 5th figure, where the upward three-wave structure began.

The high point of the last trend segment was only a few tens of points higher than the highest point of the previous upward segment. Since December of last year, the pair's movement can be considered horizontal, and this character of movement will be maintained. If this assumption is correct, the formation of an upward wave "b" will start soon, and the overall decline of the pair will continue after its completion.

The ECB speaks of the need for tightening, but inflation is falling.

The euro/dollar exchange rate decreased by 60 basis points on Wednesday, a significant decline according to current standards. The presumed wave "a" continues its formation, but a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.0679, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci, has not occurred yet. Therefore, the formation of a corrective wave "b" may still start at this level. Today's news background was very interesting for the European currency. Germany released data on unemployment and inflation in the morning. The unemployment rate remained at 5.6% in May, while inflation decreased from 7.2% in May to 6.1% y/y. Such a value of the indicator can still be considered high, and the ECB needs to continue tightening monetary policy. Still, a 1.1% inflation decline is a favorable and encouraging trend.

Christine Lagarde's speech was also expected today, but there has yet to be any information. Demand for the euro currency continues to decline steadily as falling inflation means that ECB rates may be raised less than expected or currently anticipated in the future. However, we still have two more rate hikes to see, but they are unlikely to support the European currency as they have been known for a long time, and the market has had enough time to factor them into the current exchange rate. At the moment, I expect a slight further decline in the Euro currency, but wave "b" should also start. The USD does not deserve a new downward trend segment, as the FOMC is nearing the end of the tightening process. Yesterday, Loretta Mester suggested that the rate could be raised again in June, but it is only one increase and cannot support the dollar for a long time. There is no certainty that other committee members will support Mester's view.

This image is no longer relevant

General conclusions.

Based on the analysis conducted, an upward trend segment is formed. Therefore, I recommend selling, as the pair has significant room for decline. I still consider targets in the range of 1.0500–1.0600 quite realistic. With these targets, I advise selling the pair. A corrective wave may start at the level of 1.0678, so I recommend new sales in the event of a successful breakthrough at this level.

On a higher wave scale, the wave labeling of the ascending trend segment has taken on an extended form but is likely completed. We have seen five upward waves, which most likely form the structure of a-b-c-d-e. Forming a downward trend segment may still need to be completed, and it can take any form and length.

Pilih timeframe
5
mnt
15
mnt
30
mnt
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Dapatkan keuntungan dari perubahan nilai mata uang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Unduh MetaTrader 4 dan buka perdagangan pertama Anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    GABUNG KONTES

Artikel yang direkomendasikan

Analisis GBP/USD pada 22 Mei 2025

Untuk pasangan GBP/USD, struktur gelombang terus menunjukkan perkembangan tren impulsif bullish. Pola gelombang hampir identik dengan EUR/USD. Hingga 28 Februari, kami mengamati pembentukan struktur korektif yang jelas tanpa keraguan. Namun

Chin Zhao 18:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 21 Mei 2025

Pola gelombang pada grafik 4 jam untuk EUR/USD telah berubah menjadi struktur bullish dan terus bertahan demikian. Saya yakin tidak ada yang meragukan bahwa transformasi ini terjadi semata-mata karena kebijakan

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 21 Mei 2025

struktur wave , sebagian besar dipengaruhi oleh Donald Trump. Pengaturan gelombang hampir identik dengan EUR/USD. Hingga 28 Februari, kami mengamati pembentukan struktur korektif yang meyakinkan dan tidak menimbulkan kekhawatiran. Namun

Chin Zhao 18:51 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 20 Mei 2025

Pola wave untuk GBP/USD terus menunjukkan pembentukan struktur wave impulsif bullish, berkat Donald Trump. Gambaran wave ini hampir identik dengan pasangan EUR/USD. Hingga 28 Februari, kami mengamati perkembangan struktur korektif

Chin Zhao 19:47 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 20 Mei 2025

Struktur gelombang pada grafik 4 jam EUR/USD telah berubah menjadi bullish dan terus mempertahankan bentuk tersebut. Saya yakin tidak ada keraguan bahwa transformasi ini terjadi semata-mata karena kebijakan perdagangan baru

Chin Zhao 19:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 19 Mei 2025

Pola wave pada grafik 4 jam telah berubah menjadi struktur bullish dan tetap demikian. Saya yakin bahwa transformasi ini terjadi semata-mata karena kebijakan perdagangan baru AS. Hingga 28 Februari, ketika

Chin Zhao 18:26 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Prediksi Mingguan Menggunakan Analisis Gelombang Sederhana untuk GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, dan Indeks Dolar AS pada 19 Mei

GBP/USD Analisis: Sejak 8 April, GBP/USD telah bergerak naik pada grafik harga. Dari batas bawah zona potensi pembalikan, koreksi balik telah terbentuk selama dua bulan terakhir. Kenaikan dari

Isabel Clark 11:43 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Prediksi Mingguan Menggunakan Simplified Wave Analysis untuk EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, dan Emas pada 19 Mei

EUR/USD Analisis: Sejak Februari, grafik EUR/USD telah membentuk wave naik. Selama satu setengah bulan terakhir, segmen korektif (B) telah berkembang dalam wave ini, yang masih belum selesai. Seminggu yang lalu

Isabel Clark 11:40 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 16 Mei 2025

Struktur gelombang untuk instrumen GBP/USD terus menunjukkan pembentukan rangkaian gelombang impulsif bullish. "Berkat" Donald Trump, pola gelombang ini sangat mirip dengan EUR/USD. Hingga 28 Februari, kami mengamati perkembangan struktur korektif

Chin Zhao 18:43 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 16 Mei 2025

Struktur wave pada grafik 4 jam untuk pasangan EUR/USD telah berubah menjadi naik dan terus mempertahankan formasi ini. Saya yakin bahwa transformasi ini terjadi semata-mata karena kebijakan perdagangan baru

Chin Zhao 18:40 2025-05-16 UTC+2
Tidak bisa bicara sekarang?
Tanyakan pertanyaan anda lewat chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.