EUR/USD is trading around 1.1474, below the 21-month SMA under bearish pressure, showing a slight recovery but pointing to a deeper decline in the short term.

The outlook remains negative for the euro, as rising oil prices could pressure the European currency. In turn, we could expect EUR/USD to reach the 6/8 Murray level at 1.1230.

On the other hand, investors view the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, and this could further pressure the euro. Therefore, we must be cautious if we are buying, as a strong technical correction could occur in the coming days.

According to the H4 chart, a sharp break below the 200-month EMA at 1.1379 could signal the end of the uptrend, and we could expect a drop that could cover the gap left on May 13 around 1.1180. EUR/USD could even reach the psychological level of 1.10.

Our outlook for the euro is bearish, so any rebound while the price trades below 1.1535 will be seen as a selling opportunity.