विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 12.02.2019

12.02.2019 09:29 AM

The results of the Eurogroup meeting: the European currency is waiting for new problems associated with changes in key posts in the EU

The US dollar was able to continue restoring its positions against the euro and the pound, despite the weak statistics, which indicated that American households were more negative about their outlook in January than in December.

Poor data on the UK economy, indicating that the country is gradually slipping into recession, also put pressure on the British pound, keeping its downward trend in tandem with the US dollar.

According to a report that was published yesterday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 40.6% of respondents expect an increase in unemployment, whereas in December only 38.8% of respondents were of that opinion. Also, respondents are afraid of dismissals, both on their own and on the initiative of the employer. As for the expectations of growth of their incomes, only 2.8% of respondents said this. Expectations regarding the availability of credit decreased to the level of October 2016, but this is not surprising after a series of increases in the Fed's key interest rate last year.

Eurogroup Meeting

It is likely that pressure on the euro yesterday increased after the Eurogroup meeting, following which the market began to talk about the possible major changes in key positions. First of all, we are talking about the position of president of the European Central Bank, as well as the head of the European Commission.

If Draghi fails to keep his post, then changes in the monetary policy course are not excluded, since the new receivers may have radically different views on the current economic and financial situation in the eurozone. Given the fact that at present the markets are trusted by Draghi, and investor strategies are fully tailored to the planned decisions, the reshuffling of the ECB president may lead to a significant surge in volatility and uncertainty. Of the unofficial candidates for the post of head of the Central Bank of the eurozone, there are two representatives from France, two from Finland, and one from Germany. They all have different views on the current situation.

The same concern is also caused by the possible dismissal of Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, as this may change the EU's attitude towards the UK and Brexit-related issues. Equally important may be changed in trade relations with the United States.

In any case, change is always a risk that will spill over into the market and lead to unpredictable changes.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, so far there are very few prerequisites for the reversal and growth of risky assets. Only the emerging divergence on the MACD indicator, which is well traced in the hourly chart, can lead to the closure of a number of short positions and the growth of the euro in the short term. There are also a number of other indicators that are oversold. For a larger upward correction, the trading instrument needs to return to the resistance level of 1.1300, which will open the perspective on updating the highs of 1.1350 and 1.1390.

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