विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 28.02.2019

28.02.2019 10:04 AM

Brexit and the Fed: EU leaders are not against a Brexit delay. Jerome Powell is concerned about the Fed's balance sheet

Yesterday, the British pound continued to hold the conquered maximums in tandem with the US dollar after the statements made by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The euro remained to trade in a narrow side channel after an unsuccessful attempt to resume growth in tandem with the US dollar.

The British pound received another support after French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that they would not object to the postponement of the British exit from the European Union.

Both leaders agreed that if the UK takes more time to make decisions, then there is no problem. However, it is not necessary to delay the final decision on the Brexit deal.

The data on the US economy, which came out in the second half of the day, and the speech of the Fed chairman did not have any impact on the EURUSD pair.

According to the report, the demand for US manufactured goods rose in December but turned out to be much worse than expected. According to the US Department of Commerce, production orders increased by 0.1% in January 2019 compared with the previous month. Economists had forecast an increase in orders of 0.6%. Excluding transport, orders dropped by 0.6% altogether.

During his regular speech in the US Congress, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talked more about the Fed's current balance, its reduction and regulation.

Powell said that the demand for currency grew faster than the economy, and the demand for reserves remains much higher than before the financial crisis. He also noted that the committee needs to be extremely careful in adjusting the balance, and therefore it is difficult to determine what the equilibrium demand for reserves will be.

Powell also said that the Fed held three meetings in a row on the issue of balance. This makes it possible to announce a plan for completing the reduction of the balance soon, but work is still underway on this plan, which will be announced at upcoming meetings. After reducing the balance sheet, the Fed will be 16% -17% of GDP versus 6% before the crisis.

At the end of the speech, Jerome Powell noted that the financial system is now much better capitalized, and therefore the banking system must be able to withstand the shocks.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Only a confident breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1400, which I personally doubt very much, will allow us to expect new highs in the area of 1.1430 and 1.1460 to be updated with the trading instrument. A more interesting option for purchases will be a correction to support 1.1345 and 1.1315.

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