विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 24.05.2019

24.05.2019 09:14 AM

EURUSD: Euro growth limited due to trade war and elections to the European Parliament

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump made several new statements on the trade agreement between the US and China, as well as instilled some confidence in the likelihood of a deal. Trump noted that the achievement of a trade agreement with China is very likely in the near future, and concessions for Huawei may be included in the terms of the transaction. However, according to Trump, it is too early to talk about the details of the transaction, as negotiations continue and can go on different scenarios. Let me remind you that a number of experts, including Fed economists, noted that trade wars that the United States is waging with other countries harm the US economy and limit its growth.

Returning to the fundamental statistics, the US dollar yesterday was badly affected by a weak report on sales of new homes in the United States. Data on the labor market were ignored by traders.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from May 12 to 18 decreased by 1,000 and amounted to 211,000. Economists had expected that the number of new applications would be 215,000. The moving average for four weeks fell to 220,250.

As noted above, the weak report on sales of new homes in the US in April of this year seriously affected the quotes of the US dollar. This again confirms the fact that the housing market is in a weaker state, which indicates a slow economic growth in the 2nd quarter of this year.

According to the US Department of Commerce, home sales in the primary housing market in April of this year fell immediately by 6.9% to 673,000 homes per year. Economists had expected that the decline will amount to 2.7%.

Yesterday, the data on the Fed-Kansas City composite manufacturing index was also released, which fell in May of this year to 4 points against 5 points in April, which indicates a sluggish growth. The industrial production index rose to 23 points in May against 22 points in April, while the expectations index increased to 12 points against 11 points.

It is important to note the fact that production activity in the US, as well as the service sector, at any time can show a decline, as the indices have approached very unpleasant levels.

According to Markit, the preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector was 50.6 points in May, while the preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) for the US services sector reached 50.9 points in May. Let me remind you that the index above 50 points indicates an increase in activity, while below it indicates its slowdown.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the further upward trend will be limited by the resistance around 1.1205. It is unlikely that buyers of risky assets will attempt to consolidate above this range before the elections to the European Parliament, the results of which will be announced this weekend. The downward correction in the pair may be limited by the support around 1.1160.

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