Analisis Forex & Kajian: 07.06.2019 - Weak NFP values will put a...

07.06.2019 03:04 PM

Weak NFP values will put a lot of pressure on the dollar (we sell or buy EUR/USD and AUD/USD paris based on statistics)

The final decision of the ECB on monetary policy was to maintain the level of interest rates and the determination to start a program of targeted long-term lending to banks TLTRO-3 in September of this year. First, on this news, the single currency received significant support in tandem with the US dollar but then retreated when it became known that the regulator intends to extend the current monetary rate not until the end of this year, as previously thought. But, it should be before the end of at least the first half of 2020. In addition, it was decided that in a critical situation that the ECB could go for a new rate cut.

In fact, assessing the outcome of the meeting of the European regulator, we can say that he will continue to make attempts to stimulate inflation growth by any available means.

As for the important event of today, this will be the publication of data from the US labor market. According to the presented consensus forecast, it is expected that the US economy received 185,000 new jobs in the non-agricultural sector last month against the April value of 263,000. The unemployment rate should maintain its previous value of 3.6%.

In addition to these important data, the average hourly wage will also be released, which is expected to grow by 0.3% in May against a 0.2% increase in April.

Expecting a possible market reaction to economic statistics from the United States, we note that the market currently assumes that the Fed will have to start lowering interest rates this year in the wake of large-scale trade wars that Donald Trump initiated and the risk of a slowdown in the growth of the American economy. Some of Fed members and the manager Jerome Powell himself have already hinted at this at length. This means that weaker values of indicators will be perceived as a signal to buy risky assets and to dollar sales since they will force the regulator to take precisely these monetary mitigation measures.

Summing up, we note that a noticeable decrease in the number of new jobs may cause a strong weakening of the dollar and stimulate growth in demand for companies' stocks and not only in the US.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above 1.1255, pending the publication of US employment data. If they turn out to be higher than the forecast, we should expect a breakthrough of the level of 1.1250-55 and a fall in the price to 1.1180. In this case, the pair will realize the "double top" reversal pattern. However, if the values turn out to be noticeably below expectations, this will stimulate the growth of the pair. It will rush to the local maximum of 1.1350 and then to 1.1400.

The AUD/USD pair forms a pennant shape, from which the price can break both up and down, based on employment data in America. Negative values will lead to an increase in prices to 0.7025, while positive to its fall towards 0.6935.

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