empty
22.05.2019 03:23 PM
The dollar has cut gold wings

As soon as gold spread its wings, they were immediately clipped by rising US stocks and the dollar. The 90-day postponement for Huawei counterparties was regarded by investors as a certain thaw in US-Chinese relations. In addition, officials from the White House continue to assert that the deal will ultimately be concluded and the ambassador to China in the United States says that Beijing is ready to resume negotiations. Perhaps the situation is not as critical as is commonly believed?

According to JP Morgan, trade wars are a long-running topic. Already in summer and industrial production around the world will face another round of weakness, which will adversely affect stock indexes. Their rally from the beginning of the year looks excessive. Investors were too self-confident about the imminent termination of trade friction and completely forgot about hedging risks. In May, the situation radically changed. Even the growth of the S & P 500 forces them to increase the share of safe havens in case of unforeseen circumstances. In such an environment, the position of the yen and gold should improve.

Dynamics of gold and Japanese yen

This image is no longer relevant

What is happening at the end of May while it goes against the recommendations of JP Morgan? Donald Trump and his team managed to stabilize the stock market, which perceives the slightest positive as a reason for growth and is not particularly sensitive to bad news. At the same time, increasing political risks in Europe are putting pressure on the euro and the pound, helping to strengthen the USD index. The combination of a strong dollar and S & P is a deadly mixture for gold, but the precious metal problems do not end there.

According to Commerzbank, one of the reasons for the depressed mood of the bulls on XAU/USD is the weak yuan. China is the largest consumer of gold and the USD/CNY rally makes its import to the Middle Kingdom more expensive. However, judging by the activity of central banks, they may well compensate for the potential reduction in demand for precious metals in Asia. In April, the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Russia bought 15 tons each. Kazakhstan's gold reserves increased from 11.63 million to 11.79 million ounces, and Turkey's reserves by 50 thousand ounces.

Gold does not help even the next inversion of the yield curve. In May, the differential rates between 10-year bonds and 3-month bills once again slipped into the red zone. The indicator accurately determined the future recession from 1975. Nevertheless, the difference in the yield of 10 and 2-year securities has not yet been marked by negative values, which allows Bloomberg experts to shift the expected time of the decline of the US economy from 2020 to 2021.

Dynamics of yield curves in the US

This image is no longer relevant

In the short run, the XAU/USD dynamics can be affected by the contents of the minutes of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the data on European business activity for May and the results of the elections to the European Parliament. If under the influence of weak statistics and growing political risks, the EUR/USD pair drops to 1.1 while gold risks continuing the downward movement.

Technically, a breakthrough of the lower limit of the consolidation range of $1265-1310 per ounce will allow the "bulls" of precious metals to count on the implementation of target by 161.8% using the AB = CD pattern.

Gold daily chart

This image is no longer relevant

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin se vende fácilmente

Mientras el mercado debate cómo afectará la legislación sobre las stablecoins, la reanudación de las amenazas arancelarias de Donald Trump deteriora el apetito global por el riesgo y contribuye

Marek Petkovich 13:41 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Los litigios judiciales entre Trump y las empresas sobre los aranceles influirán negativamente en los mercados (existe la probabilidad de que continúe la caída del precio del Bitcoin y del Litecoin)

Los mercados mundiales siguen bajo la fuerte influencia de los acontecimientos que ocurren en Estados Unidos, que tanto en el ámbito político como en el económico se comportan como

Pati Gani 12:57 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de mayo. La justicia prevaleció, ¿pero por cuánto tiempo?

El par de divisas el par GBP/USD el jueves se consolidó por debajo de la línea media móvil, mientras que el dólar creció durante tres días consecutivos. Sin embargo, todo

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de mayo. Jaque a Donald Trump.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó un débil movimiento descendente durante la primera mitad del jueves, pero en la segunda mitad se disparó bruscamente al alza. Vimos un fuerte estallido

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de mayo. La libra esterlina se mantiene estable.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento alcista el lunes. Es importante señalar de inmediato que la situación con el euro es bastante complicada e inestable. El euro

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 27 de mayo. El presidente dijo, el presidente cambió de opinión.

El par de divisas EUR/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista durante la sesión del lunes desde la apertura del mercado. Otra caída del dólar estadounidense la semana pasada fue provocada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

El caos en los mercados continuará (hay probabilidad de una continuación de la caída local del #USDX y del precio del oro)

Los mercados continúan actuando a ciegas en medio de las acciones caóticas de D. Trump, quien intenta sacar a EE.UU. de la más profunda crisis integral como el barón

Pati Gani 11:26 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de mayo. El mercado vuelve a responder sin ambigüedades a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento hacia el norte el miércoles, aunque a primera vista no había razones claras para ello. Sí, el nivel de inflación (el único

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de mayo. Un nuevo golpe al dólar: «One big beautiful bill act».

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su movimiento ascendente durante el miércoles. El dólar estadounidense lleva cayendo sin pausa por más de una semana, algo que no sucedía en todo

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se convierte en víctima de estafadores

La confianza en el mundo financiero no solo puede perderla el dólar estadounidense. La información sobre el robo de datos de aproximadamente 197 mil clientes de Coinbase, la mayor plataforma

Marek Petkovich 14:05 2025-05-19 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.