Forex Analysis & Reviews: 03.06.2025 - Trump: Tariffs Cannot Be...

03.06.2025 12:38 AM

Trump: Tariffs Cannot Be Canceled

Donald Trump is prepared to fight for "his tariffs" until the end—or until victory. It's important to remember that court battles are nothing new for the current U.S. president. During his first presidential term, Trump was frequently accused of various things and often summoned to court. There were also two attempts to impeach him. As his second term began, Trump was once again facing charges of illegal actions, and a third impeachment attempt is being prepared. It's not hard to guess who is behind these "coup attempts"—the Democrats. They filed the lawsuit in the International Trade Court, and it's the Democrats preparing the third impeachment attempt.

From the outside, it may seem like the Democrats are simply fighting for power, and Trump keeps giving them reasons to do so. However, many of Trump's decisions truly do provoke confusion.

The cancellation of Trump's tariffs lasted exactly one day—actually less than a day, since the Appellate Court suspiciously quickly overturned the Trade Court's ruling. Trump stated he is ready to take the matter to the Supreme Court if the tariff cancellation ruling stands. According to Trump, lifting the tariffs threatens U.S. national security, and the country's economy will face collapse. At the same time, he expressed confidence that the final decision would be in his favor: "Many countries are holding our country hostage with their anti-American tariffs. If our tariffs are canceled, it will be the collapse of the United States," he claims.

Of course, many are asking why this collapse didn't happen earlier when there were no tariffs, and the U.S. economy steadily grew quarter after quarter. People were well-fed, satisfied, and happy. But if you ask Trump such a question, you're likely to be accused of being "anti-American" or of "not understanding anything."

Nevertheless, the market responds to Trump's rhetoric almost daily in the most eloquent way. Many market participants hold a logical position: when the U.S. economy grows again, and Trump's tariffs show positive effects, making America great again, the dollar will also be in demand. At the moment, however, it seems that Trump himself is undermining national security, clearly reflected in the dollar's exchange rate.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

My analysis of the EUR/USD indicates that the instrument continues forming an upward wave segment. In the near future, the wave pattern will depend entirely on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the upward trend has begun to form, and its targets could extend up to the 1.25 figure. Therefore, I consider long positions with targets above 1.1572, equivalent to 423.6% Fibonacci levels. Remember that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but there are currently no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Unfortunately, under Trump, the markets may still face a great deal of turmoil and reversals that do not align with the wave structure or any technical analysis. However, the current scenario and wave structure remain intact. The formation of upward wave 3 continues, with the nearest targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions, as the market shows no signs of wanting to reverse the trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
If there is no confidence in the market situation, it's better not to enter.
There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

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*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

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Fundamental analysis

Chin Zhao,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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