Forex Analysis & Reviews: 17.05.2019 - Wave analysis of EUR / USD...

17.05.2019 10:46 AM

Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for May 17. Euro may take a pause, pound sterling continues to collapse

EUR / USD

On Thursday, May 16, trading ended for EUR / USD by 30 bp lower. New sales of the tool are fully consistent with the current wave marking, involving the construction of a downward wave of 3, 3, 3 with targets under the 11 figure. The US dollar grew yesterday on all fronts with the basis of fairly strong reports on the construction of new residential buildings and the number of building permits. However, one should not compare the fall of the euro with the fall of the pound. Eurocurrency decline is absolutely calm, without having to feel the panic. Today, inflation in the European Union can provide new food for thought for the markets. The rate is expected to be 1.7% y / y. I believe that even exceeding the forecast will not cause strong purchases for the European currency. The theme of the trade war between the EU and America temporarily faded into the background.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair is still in the process of building a downward trend. The current wave counting suggests a continuation of the pair decline with the targets of 1.1097 and 1.1045, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. Thus, I recommend selling a tool with these goals and a restrictive order above the 50.0% Fibonacci level.

GBP / USD

On May 16, the GBP / USD pair lost another 45 basis points. The pound sterling, therefore, remains in absolute outsiders. There is absolutely no reason to oppose the US currency with the pound. Britain is not happy with the current situation. Yesterday, Theresa May's possible resignation was discussed, or more precisely, until the middle of next month. The ratings of the leader of the UK are plummeting, confidence is diminishing every day. Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson has already outlined his plans to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Thus, the chair under Theresa May is swinging harder, but she does not want to retire all by herself. Moreover, what seems to be the problem is how Brexit will help her resignation and the arrival. For example, how about Johnson? After all, the EU flatly refused to revise the current version of the Brexit agreement. Respectively, Johnson will also have to negotiate with Labor and Parliament, as it is with May. This news background contributes to a further decrease in the pound and the construction of a wave.

Sales targets:

1.2780 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.2675 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern implies a continuation of the instrument decline within the wave c. Thus, now, I recommend sales with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2780 and 1.2675, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt at any of these marks can lead to a departure of quotes from the reached minimums and even the construction of a sufficiently strong upward wave.

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