Forex Analysis & Reviews: 24.11.2021 - Breaking forecast for...

24.11.2021 09:20 AM

Breaking forecast for EUR/USD on November 24

On Tuesday, the euro area revealed unexpectedly good results of PMI indexes. According to preliminary estimates, all indexes were expected to drop. Yet, the situation was the opposite. Thus, the PMI Manufacturing Index rose to 58.6 versus the forecast reading of 58.3. The Services PMI Index soared to 56.6 from 54.6 versus the forecast figure of 54.0. As a result, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose to 55.8, while analysts had expected the figure to slide to 53.7 from 54.2. Following this upbeat data, the euro resumed an upward movement. Nevertheless, its increase was rather small.

Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index:

Before the New York session, the euro returned to the levels where it was trading before the publication of PMI indexes. The US also released its PMI indexes. The preliminary estimates were quite positive. Yet, the results turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts. The Manufacturing PMI Index rose to 59.1 from 58.4 versus the forecast reading of 58.8. The Services PMI Index was projected to grow to 59.0 from 58.7. However, it declined to 57.0. Thus, the US Markit Composite PMI Output Index fell to 56.5 from 57.6 while analysts had expected the reading to grow to 58.2. As a result, the euro resumed an upward movement. Yet, its rise was quite modest and short-lived. So, it rolled back to the levels of the beginning of the day.

US Markit Composite PMI Output Index:

Today, the US will unveil a batch of macroeconomic statistics. Before the opening of the New York session, the economic calendar is completely empty. The US will release a great chunk of its reports because tomorrow, the trading floors will be closed on the occasion of Thanksgiving Day. Friday is a short business day. So, trading activity will be low. Market participants are anticipating the durable goods orders report. The reading is expected to climb by 0.3%. The fact is that durable goods orders reflect the future dynamic of the consumer activity which is considered the main driving force for the US economy. Initial jobless claims data is unlikely to affect the market as the reading may show a decline of 4,000. The continuing jobless claims are projected to drop by only 10,000. The changes are extremely small. So, traders are likely to simply ignore them. The second estimate of GDP for the third quarter is expected to come in line with the first one. Investors have already priced in this possibility. So, the market reaction to this report may also be muted. Despite an eventful economic calendar, traders will focus only on durable goods orders. If the forecast comes true, the US dollar may strengthen even more against its main rivals.

US Durable Goods Orders:

The EUR/USD reached a new yearly low within its current downward movement. As a result, it dropped to 1.1225. Now, it gets stuck in the range of 50 pips.

The RSI indicator is moving along the 50 line on the 1H chart, signaling the stagnation phase.

On the daily chart, we can observe a descending trend that started in early June with an overall distance of 1000 pips.

Outlook:

The number of short positions significantly exceeds long ones. Therefore, the euro is likely to tumble even more. Currently, traders are waiting for a breakout of the stagnation range of 1.1225/1.1275.

Technical indicators give mixed signals due to the sideways movement of the pair on small and daily charts. Meanwhile, technical indicators on daily charts signal a selling opportunity.