Forex Analysis & Reviews: 20.06.2019 - The Fed gave a start to a...

20.06.2019 12:42 PM

The Fed gave a start to a weaker dollar (We expect the EUR/USD pair to continue growing and USD/CAD to decline)

As expected, the outcome of the Fed meeting dealt a heavy blow to the US dollar, which at the auctions in Asia continued to fall almost vertically against all major currencies at the auctions in Asia.

The decision of the Federal Reserve to remove the word "patience" from the resolution with regard to its view of the current monetary course and the generally "dovish" statement by Central Bank head Jerome Powell. Although they were expected by the markets, it turned out to be a kind of surprise. The balance of power among the voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed that almost half of the voters consider it possible up to three increases in interest rates in the current year. It is likely that this will be done at the July, September and December meetings of the regulator.

Also, a general decrease in forecasts for economic growth and the absence of an increase in inflationary pressure contributes to broad sales of the US dollar at least until 2021. Given this, we believe that in the foreign exchange markets, the overall negative trend towards it will only increase.

The weakening of the US currency has also contributed to an increase in investor interest in commodity assets traded in dollars. Gold has risen sharply in price and it receives support despite the ambiguous situation surrounding the factors affecting crude oil quotations. Although, it is not so noticeable. Of course, a significant role is played here by a strong increase in oil production in the States, as well as signals that the global economy has slowed down against the background of a worsening trade war between Washington and Beijing.

In our opinion, yesterday's outcome of the June Fed meeting is a landmark event and represents the beginning of a period of change in the monetary policy of the world's largest central bank. Given these prospects, we can talk about the beginning of a global trend to the weakening of the US dollar, which can increase if the Americans and the Chinese manage to agree on the terms of mutual trade.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is above the level of 1.1260 in the wake of the global weakening of the US dollar. The pair may continue limited growth despite the expectation of lower rates from the ECB. If the price overcomes the 1.1285 mark, it can continue to grow to 1.1345.

The USD/CAD pair is trading below the local minimum of 1.3235. We believe that the pair will continue to fall to 1.3100 against the background of falling interest in the US dollar, as well as oil attempts to price increase.