Here are the details of the economic calendar from July 5:
The data on business activity in the services sector of the EU and the UK for June were published during the previous trading day, which came out better than forecasted.
- Business activity in the EU services sector increased from 55.2 points to 58.3 points against the forecast of 58.0 points.
- Business activity in the UK services sector declined from 62.9 to 62.4 points, against the forecast of 61.7 points.
* The index of business activity in the service sector is an indicator that is determined based on a survey of managers of companies working in the service sector, in order to assess the current situation in this sector, as well as possible prospects.
The better-than-expected indicators pushed the euro and pound sterling against the dollar, but the market dynamics were still low.
What is the reason for the low volatility?
As already noted in the previous analytical review, the Americans were not around in celebration of Independence Day.
The absence of one of the largest players on the market (the United States) leads to a reduction in trading volumes, which will lead to a low-amplitude price fluctuation in the market.
Analysis of trading charts from July 5:
The EUR/USD pair is moving in the correction stage from the support area represented by the price level of 1.1800. Yesterday's low activity led to stagnation, where it was not so interesting to trade.
The trading recommendation on July 5 considered a possible stagnation.
Following the correctional pattern from the support area 1.3730/1.3750, the GBP/USD pair managed to restore the quote by more than 60% relative to the downward movement in the period from June 23 to July 2.
Time will tell whether this will be the starting point for a change in the market cycle, but trading signals are already taking place.
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 6, 2021
Today, Europe will release the volume of retail sales for May. It is expected to increase by 4.4%.
* The volume of retail sales is one of the main economic indicators, which is an indicator of the change in sales volume in the context of retail trade.
To simply put it, this indicator reflects the purchasing power of the population.
The growth in retail sales is a positive signal for the economy and, as a result, the growth of the national currency.
9:00 Universal time - EU retail sales
At 14:00 Universal time, United States will release its data on business activity in the service sector, where it is predicted to fall from 70.4 points to 64.8 points. This may negatively affect the US dollar if the forecasts of the decline coincide.
Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see that that the quote is still within the borders of 1.1835/1.1890. A deceleration will quite possibly lead to a new round of acceleration, where trading will be done on the basis of the outgoing impulse.
- Buy positions are considered if the price is held above the level of 1.1900 with the prospect move to 1.1950.
- Sell positions are considered if the price is held below the level of 1.1830 with the prospect move to 1.1800.
The trading recommendation considers the borders of stagnation with a small deviation in order to enter the market at the time of the main movement.
As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it shows that there is a rapid upward trend during the Pacific and Asian trading sessions, which led to a local breakdown of the June 30 high. It was not possible to keep the quote above the level of 1.3900, which indicates a speculative interest. In the case of a downward development, interest in short positions may arise if the price is kept below the level of 1.3835.
* Short positions or Short means positions to sell in anticipation of a decline in the value of the asset.
