For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 125 points, as a result of having a breakdown of a previously formed cluster. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a long-awaited surf of the range of 1.3200 / 1.3300, which kept us for almost a week. Meanwhile, pulse candles overcame the lower limit, going down to the value of 1.3145, but after that, we saw a pullback to 1.3220, as if embodying the model of "Breakdown & Rollback". On the other hand, the informational news background had a wide platform for discussions. We will begin with the notorious Brexit theme. Earlier, we discussed the refusal of the parliament to vote for the agreement, but now, the focus is on postponing Brexit, and here the most interesting thing begins. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, allowed Brexit to postpone for a short time, but only if the British Parliament approves the previously agreed deal with Brussels. Now, perhaps, there is a desynchronization in your mind, as the British Parliament will not go to the approval of the current agreement on the EU, and in the case of such ultimatums there is a hard Brexit waiting for us. In turn, the media are trying to remove this ultimatum from our attention, turning all attention to the disagreement in the release dates of the delay. Prime Minister Theresa May insists on the date of June 30, while European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker insists on May 23. Now, we come back to another key event of the previous day - the meeting of the Federal Reserve Commission on open market operations. At the press conference, Jerome Powell said that the Fed would not raise the rate in 2019, adding that it would stop reducing the portfolio of bonds held by the Fed in September.
Today is a day with no less activity. In Britain, there are data on retail sales, where a strong decline is expected from 4.2% to 3.3%. At the same time, a meeting of the Bank of England will take place, where the rate will naturally remain at the same level of 0.75%, but Mark Carney can, as always, throw in two cents about current realities. Of course, bringing everything together, do not forget about the information noise in the face of Brexit.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the hypothetically trading method "Breakdown & Rollback" has a place to exist, along with a charmingly poor informational news background in Britain, we can move down. In this case, I do not exclude a decline to 1.3150-1.3100.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions to buy, if something changes on the information background and bearish interest go to the background, traders monitor clear price fixing higher than 1.3230.
- Traders consider selling positions in terms of mining the value of 1.3220, where they already consider selling positions lower than 1.3200.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is interest in the background of an attempt to work out a previously passed level in the short term. Intraday perspective was replaced by the downward side against the background of the recent impulse move, while the medium-term perspective maintains the upward interest against the background of the past.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 21, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 42 points. It is likely to assume that due to the information and news background, volatility will remain at a high level.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
