4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 30p - 55p - 64p - 75p - 56p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 56p (average).
The first trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was held in absolutely neutral trading without strong exchange rate changes. The pair only began to decline during the US trading session, which could develop into a downward correction. Unfortunately, no important and interesting macroeconomic reports and other news were available to traders today. Thus, market participants were deprived of fundamental influence. Brexit, which miraculously began to influence the movement of the euro/dollar pair in the last week, can once again be put on hold. The trade war between the United States and the European Union seems to be paused before it even begins. In such a situation, traders can only think about what will happen this Thursday, and whether something will happen at all. Recall that this day is the only one this week when there will be important macroeconomic events. The ECB meeting with the announcement of the results and press conference of Mario Draghi, indexes of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the US and Europe, orders for durable goods in the US.
Apart from this list, of course, is the ECB meeting, the last ECB meeting for Mario Draghi. However, firstly, he still has two days to go. Secondly, judging by analyst forecasts, this time no changes in the monetary policy of the European Union will follow. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting next, next week, where changes in monetary policy may just follow, namely the third consecutive reduction in the key rate. If this happens, the imbalance between the Fed and the ECB rates will continue to decline, which will definitely be in favor of the euro. The faster the difference in rates decreases, the more chances the euro has on the formation of a full-fledged upward trend. At the moment, despite several weeks of euro growth, it is impossible to say that the hegemony of the US dollar is complete.
We believe that the EUR/USD pair will be prone to a downward correction until Thursday, despite any news regarding Brexit. The last week, when there was a correlation between the pound and the dollar, we consider to some extent an accident. Thus, in order to continue strengthening, the euro needs new fundamental foundations. At least some hint of stabilization of the situation in the eurozone by Mario Draghi, improving business activity indexes in the EU, rising wages and retail sales. If this does not happen, then it will be difficult for the euro to continue to show growth against the dollar.
From a technical point of view, the MACD indicator shows that a downward correction has already begun. Thus, the immediate goal for this correction is the Kijun-sen line, which is located near the level of 1.1089, built on the basis of the average volatility of the currency pair. By the way, if the pound shows just fantastic volatility, then the euro is quite mediocre. 56 points a day is not much. The difference in the movements of the two main pairs remains quite high, from our point of view.
Trading recommendations:
EUR/USD may begin to adjust. Thus, traders are advised to wait until the completion of the current correction and only after that resume trading on the increase with the goals of 1.1200 and 1.1230. It is recommended to return to euro sales not earlier than when the bears overcome the critical line of Kijun-sen, which will be the first signal of a change in trend.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.
