empty
23.06.2022 08:02 AM
Trading plan for EUR/USD for European session on June 23. COT report and overview of yesterday's trading. US economy slipping into recession. EUR has chance to recover

Yesterday, there were a few excellent signals to enter the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and try to figure out what actually happened. In the morning review, I paid your attention to 1.0494 and recommended making trading decisions with this level in focus. A false breakout in the first half of the day generated a buy signal. However, after 15 pips upwards, the euro came under pressure again that closed positions at break even. A breakout and an opposite test of 1.0494 made up an excellent sell signal before the Fed's policy meeting. Back then, after the price had moved 25 pips down, the bulls managed to push the price back to 1.0494, aiming to updateintraday highs. In the second half of the day before Powell's testimony, the buyers insisted on a breakout and an opposite test of 1.0537. This generated a buy signal. As a result, the euro grew 65 pips. Unfortunately, traders failed to sell the pair at a bounce at 1.0610 because a few pips lacked before its test.

This image is no longer relevant

What is needed to open long positions on EUR/USD

The focal point yesterday was Jerome Powell's testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee in Congress in the second half of the day. In his speech, the Fed's Chair stated that policymakers foresee further rate hikes as such moves are appropriate for the time being. Monetary tightening will allow the central bank to ease the strongest inflationary pressure in the last 40 years. The Fed's leader also supposed that the US economy might slip into recession in the nearest couple of years. He added this scenario could be hardly avoided. His remarks reinforced the euro and weakened the US dollar which comes as no surprise.

Today the economic calendar reminds us about a series of PMIs by Markit Economics for theEurozone and Germany, including composite PMIs, services and manufacturing PMIs. If the actual data matches expectations or indicates improvement in business activity, the euro will gain ground and update weekly highs. Alternatively, if the currency pair declines following the data release, thekey task for the bulls will be to defend the nearest level of 1.0555. A false breakout there will generate a signal to open long positions with a view to returning to the weekly high at 1.0603. Moving averages are passing at about 1.0555 which also lends a helping hand to the buyers. A breakout and a test of 1.0603 downward will deal a blow to the bears' stop orders. This will allow traders to open long positions with the prospects of building a new uptrend and updating 1.0640. A more distant target is seen at 1.0663 where I recommend profit-taking.

There is nothing wrong if EUR/USD declines and the buyers lack activity at 1.0555. Nevertheless, the pair might get stuck in a range and the bulls will face the challenge of escaping from the sideways channel. In this case, I would recommend you should not rush to enter the market. It would be a good idea to open long positions at a false breakout at about the support level of 1.0512. I would recommend buying EUR/USD immediately at a dip from 1.0472 or from lower levels at 1.0430, bearing in mind a 30-35 pips upward correction intraday.

What is needed to open short positions on EUR/USD

The bears find it more difficult to extend a correction. Indeed, yesterday's update of the weekly high after Powell's testimony proves that the bulls market has been going on since June 15. In case the euro grows in the first half of the day after upbeat PMI reports by Markit, only a false breakout at 1.0603 will generate a signal for opening short positions with the view to returning to support at 1.0555. A breakout and settlement below this level, the ECB economic bulletin, and an opposite test upwards will create an extra sell signal with activation of the buyers' stop orders. In this case, the currency pair might develop a large move towards the area between 1.0512 and the intermediate support level.

A breakout and settlement below 1.0512 pave the way to 1.0472 where I recommend the exit from sell positions. The thing is that we can hardly rely on this scenario because Powell's speech today will be of little importance. The Fed's leader will repeat everything he said yesterday. In case EUR/USD moves upward in the European session and the bears lack activity at 1.0603, I would recommend you cancel short positions until a more attractive level of 1.0640. A false breakoutthere will be a swing high for a downward correction. We can sell EUR/USD immediately at a bounce from 1.0663 or higher from 1.0687, bearing in mind a 30-35 pips correction intraday.

This image is no longer relevant

The COT (Commitment of Traders) report from June 14 logs a sharp contraction of long positions and growth of short ones that created a negative delta, thus indicating growing bearish trading sentiment. The ECB decisions had been already digested and the market was mulling over the Fed's policy meeting which ended up with a rate hike by 75 basis points. The regulator underscores its commitment to tough measures against inflation. The fact of aggressive monetary tightening makes traders get rid of risky assets and buy the US dollar. So, the greenback benefits from the Fed's hawkishness. The US dollar is likely to extend its strength thereafter because the Fed is not going to give up its tough measures against soaring inflation. So, further rate hikes will follow. According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions fell by 23,262 to 206,986 whereas short non-commercial positions jumped by 33,299 to 213,004. Despite the low exchangerate, it does not add any appeal to EUR. Thus, traders opt for USD. Last week, the overall non-commercial net positions turned negative and contracted from 50,543 to -6,018. EUR/USD closed lower at 1.0481 last week from 1.0710 a week ago.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicators' signals:Trading is carried out above the 30 and 50 daily moving averages. It indicates that thebulls are trying to conquer the market.

Moving averages

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger BandsIf EUR/USD declines, the indicators' lower border at nearly 1.0525 will serve as support. Alternatively, if the pair rises, the upper border at about 1.0603 will act as resistance.

Description of indicators

Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing

out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked green on the chart.

MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9

Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

GBP/USD:6月13日美國交易時段的交易計劃(早盤交易回顧)

在我早上的預測中,我強調了1.3531水平,並計劃根據這一水平做出交易決策。讓我們來看一下5分鐘圖表並分析發生了什麼。

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:37 2025-06-13 UTC+2

歐元/美元:6月13日美國交易時段的交易計劃(上午交易回顧)

在我上午的預測中,我特別強調了1.1556這個水平,並計劃根據這一水平來制定市場進入決策。我們來看看5分鐘圖表並分析發生了什麼情況。

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:31 2025-06-13 UTC+2

如何在6月13日交易GBP/USD貨幣對?新手簡單交易技巧和分析

週四,英鎊/美元對顯示出相對強勁的上升走勢,儘管英鎊在日內出現下跌。有很多新聞事件。

Paolo Greco 06:31 2025-06-13 UTC+2

如何在6月13日交易歐元/美元對?初學者的簡單提示和交易分析

在週四和週五的夜間,歐元/美元貨幣對展現出“美式競速”的模式。過去兩天,由於大規模抗議和騷亂繼續在美國多個城市爆發,以回應唐納·川普的移民政策,美元再次暴跌。

Paolo Greco 06:31 2025-06-13 UTC+2

6月13日英鎊/美元交易建議和分析:疲弱的GDP數據破壞了英鎊的前景。

週四,GBP/USD 貨幣對繼續上升。然而,有些令人驚訝的是,本週英鎊的升值幅度較歐元小。

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-13 UTC+2

歐元/美元6月13日交易建議和分析:特朗普警告提高關稅

EUR/USD 貨幣對在週四持續了週三開始的強勁上升趨勢。當日接近尾聲時開始出現向下的回調,但這次的回調明顯弱於之前的上升。

Paolo Greco 03:40 2025-06-13 UTC+2

如何在6月12日交易英鎊/美元貨幣對?初學者的簡單提示和交易分析

週三,GBP/USD 貨幣對的走勢類似於 EUR/USD 貨幣對。美國通脹報告成為美元下跌的新驅動力,儘管數據並不算災難性的。

Paolo Greco 06:05 2025-06-12 UTC+2

如何在6月12日交易EUR/USD貨幣對?新手簡單技巧和交易分析

週三,EUR/USD 貨幣對恢復了其超過四個月的上升趨勢。更確切地說,自唐納德·特朗普成為總統以來就一直持續。

Paolo Greco 06:05 2025-06-12 UTC+2

2023年6月12日英鎊/美元交易建議與分析:英鎊再添喜訊

週三,GBP/USD貨幣對恢復了上升趨勢。如先前所述,英鎊目前並無有效理由對美元下跌——尤其是 對美元 來說。

Paolo Greco 04:00 2025-06-12 UTC+2

2023年6月12日EUR/USD交易建議與分析:通脹數據甚至未能提振美元

EUR/USD 貨幣對在整個週三的交易表現相當不同。在歐洲交易時段,該貨幣對繼續其橫向波動的趨勢,這種趨勢已持續了幾天。

Paolo Greco 03:55 2025-06-12 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.