empty
06.04.2020 01:13 PM
Analysis and trading ideas for USD/JPY on April 6, 2020

Good day!

The situation with COVID-19, according to data on Sunday, remains more or less tolerable in Japan. 4,565 people infected with coronavirus, about 700 cases of fatal outcomes.

Nevertheless, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering the option of introducing a state of emergency in the country. However, Abe can only take such a step after consulting with medical experts and health officials. It is not the responsibility of the Prime Minister of Japan to make an independent decision on the introduction of a state of emergency.

Even if an emergency is introduced, it will most likely affect the largest and most densely populated areas and cities in the country. Such as Tokyo, Osaka, and perhaps some others. However, the emergency situation does not provide for a total quarantine. The population will not be fined, but the closure of schools and a number of institutions is quite possible. A decision on this issue may be made as early as tomorrow, on Tuesday. By the way, the emergency regime cannot prohibit business activity in Japan, which means that the economy of the Land of the Rising Sun will not be paralyzed and will continue to function as much as possible in the current conditions.

If we go to the technical picture of the USD/JPY currency pair, then, despite the failed data on the US labor market, the dollar/yen showed growth last week.

Weekly

This image is no longer relevant

The bears' attempts to continue the pressure on the instrument were limited near 107.00. As has been noted many times before, this is a strong, significant psychological and technical level, which was once again confirmed by the auction of the past week. From this mark, the pair started an active recovery and closed the session at 108.52. Approximately in the middle of the Ichimoku indicator cloud and slightly above 50 simple moving average.

For the USD/JPY, the trading of the current five-day period started quite positively. At the time of writing, the pair is strengthening and trading is taking place near 109.20. However, the bulls for this instrument have not solved all the same tasks as before. Namely, going up out of the cloud, breaking through 89 and 144 exponential moving averages, as well as fixing over the cut, but not broken, resistance line (red) 125.84-114.55. As you can see, the pair can not be fixed by more than one candle above this line, which means that its breakdown at the moment can not be considered true.

Right now, the quote is testing for a breakout of 89 EMA and trying to get out of the Ichimoku cloud, above the red resistance line, which, although it is considered cut, continues to offer resistance. Also, do not discount the strong 144 exponential, which has a special impact on pairs with the Japanese yen. In general, the USD/JPY bulls have serious tasks that they need to solve in order to continue the route in the north direction.

Daily

This image is no longer relevant

Despite the fact that today's trading opened with a small bearish gap, the pair turned up, closed the price gap and continues to grow. Here it is very clear that after passing up three moving averages at once (50 MA, 89 EMA, and 144 EMA), the quote met resistance on the Tenkan line and so far has rebounded from it. If today's trading can be closed above Tenkan, it is possible to continue the rise to the area of 109.60-109.85. However, it is worth noting that the same resistance line of 125.84-114.55 passes a little higher than Tenkan.

Thus, there is a possibility of a downward pullback from current prices. Let's take a closer look at this scenario over a smaller time period.

H1

This image is no longer relevant

In particular, on the hourly chart, we see a series of Doji candles that indicate the pair's problems to continue rising. In my opinion, there are two possible scenarios in this situation.

The first provides that after the formation of the next Doji candle, the pair will begin to decline, the goals of which will be the area near 108.85 or lower, the area of 108.35-108.20. If this happens, you can try careful sales to the indicated prices, where you can close short positions and consider purchases.

The second scenario is a sharp shot up from the current prices and a breakdown of 109.50. In this case, after fixing above 109.50, you can also try opening long positions on the rollback to this level, which are currently the most priority.

Good luck!

Ivan Aleksandrov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/JPY pair continues to gain positive momentum for the second day in a row. From a technical standpoint, GBP/JPY has once again demonstrated resilience below the 200-day Simple Moving

Irina Yanina 14:05 2025-06-04 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 4, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1454, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a downward move. Today, the pair consolidated below

Samir Klishi 14:02 2025-06-04 UTC+2

Forex forecast 04/06/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Oil and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 12:05 2025-06-04 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 4, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair showed no interest in movement on Tuesday. Throughout the day, bulls and bears launched weak attacks, none of which led to anything significant

Samir Klishi 10:05 2025-06-04 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Silver Commodity Instrument, Wednesday June 04, 2025.

From what we can see on the 4-hour chart of the Silver commodity instrument, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator appears to be in Overbought condition so that in the near future

Arief Makmur 06:22 2025-06-04 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday June 04, 2025.

Although on the 4-hour chart AUD/JPY has the potential to be corrected to weaken, which is confirmed by the condition of the Stochastic Oscillator indicator which is in an Overbought

Arief Makmur 06:22 2025-06-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 4, 2025

Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone slightly slowed the euro's growth amid a continued stock market rally (Dow Jones +0.51%). However, considering the market's growth amid several challenges—including China's

Laurie Bailey 05:21 2025-06-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 4, 2025

Yesterday, as the US dollar index strengthened by 0.53%, the British pound fell by 27 pips. However, this decline could already be offset during today's Asian session, as yesterday's

Laurie Bailey 05:21 2025-06-04 UTC+2

AUD/USD Forecast for June 4, 2025

The Australian dollar's move toward the price channel line at 0.6548 was delayed yesterday due to a "glitch" in the US dollar's downtrend (the index strengthened by 0.53%), but overall

Laurie Bailey 05:21 2025-06-04 UTC+2

EUR/GBP Forecast for June 4, 2025

Yesterday, the euro sharply reversed down against the pound from the strong resistance level of 0.8448. At the same time, the Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe also turned downward

Laurie Bailey 05:21 2025-06-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.