empty
25.02.2025 01:37 PM
Bitcoin longing for crypto winter

What triggered the 20% crash in BTC/USD from its all-time highs? Was it uncertainty in the White House's policy, investor fatigue with Trump trading, or fraudulent activities involving crypto exchanges?

For a long time, Bitcoin resisted strong headwinds, but once US stock indices suffered a two-day sell-off, bullish patience snapped. Buyers retreated, and soon after, they began to flee en masse.

The first shall be last, and vice versa

In 2025, gold shines brightly, as investors bet that Trump's tariff threats are just a negotiation tactic. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the US dollar, which surged after the November presidential elections, have now fallen out of favor—for the same reason.

Trump trading is retreating, and investors are tired of his loud rhetoric, which turned out to be more bark than bite. For those still in doubt, just look at Trump's and Melania's memecoins—which soared after his inauguration but then lost over 80% of their value. Investors have also lost confidence in the strategic Bitcoin reserve, the rapid regulatory framework for the crypto industry, and the SEC's crypto-friendly stance.

As a result, BTC/USD has started underperforming not only gold but also US high-tech stocks.

Crypto basket vs. NASDAQ performance

This image is no longer relevant

Fraud scandals are fueling the crypto sell-off.

OKX admitted to handling $1 trillion in illegal transactions and agreed to pay a $504 million fine. Hackers stole nearly $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum from ByBit. Just like during the previous crypto winter, fraud and regulatory violations are piling up, making investors wary of digital assets. According to CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours alone, $1.34 billion in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated. Meanwhile, the US stock market downturn is adding to the BTC/USD hectic sell-off.

This image is no longer relevant

Commonly, a correction in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq signals a decline in global risk appetite. Therefore, as a high-risk asset, Bitcoin has little choice but to fall.

Could BTC/USD be saved by a slowdown in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—for January? Highly unlikely.

In fact, an unexpected surge in the PCE would likely boost demand for the dollar and trigger even more selling of digital assets.

Technical outlook for BTC/USD

On the daily chart, BTC/USD has formed a double-top pattern.

As prices move further away from the moving average combination, the chances of a full trend reversal from bullish to bearish increase. As long as Bitcoin trades below $91,250, selling remains the preferred strategy.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Igor Kovalyov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers. Despite the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged, the euro is facing headwinds due to ongoing

Irina Yanina 13:20 2025-07-25 UTC+2

No Unity of Opinion Within the ECB Yet

Yesterday, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, citing risks stemming from the trade war with the U.S., the strong euro, and rising government spending. According to Governing Council

Jakub Novak 11:59 2025-07-25 UTC+2

ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged

Yesterday, many were watching how the European Central Bank would act under current conditions, as the economy still requires stimulus, but inflationary risks prevent further easing. Following the meeting, President

Jakub Novak 11:36 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The Market Has Chosen a Win-Win Strategy

The U.S. stock market has shaken off its fears completely. The VIX volatility index has plunged to its lowest level since early February, while the S&P

Marek Petkovich 11:15 2025-07-25 UTC+2

Will Trump Succeed in Forcing Powell to Do His Bidding? (Potential for a Bitcoin Decline and a Rise in #NDX)

The U.S. president is fully implementing his aggressive policy toward everyone and everything — both in foreign and domestic affairs. While his actions toward trade partners are more or less

Pati Gani 09:57 2025-07-25 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but all of them are quite important. In Germany, the IFO Business Climate Index will be released — the least significant

Paolo Greco 06:43 2025-07-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 25: No Sign of De-escalation Yet

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair pulled back slightly, but this strengthening of the dollar has no real impact on the overall picture. The British pound has corrected in recent

Paolo Greco 04:17 2025-07-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 25: The ECB Meeting Did Not Change the Balance of Power Between the Dollar and the Euro

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to move upward on Thursday. There were several macroeconomic events scheduled for the day, and they did provoke a small market reaction

Paolo Greco 04:17 2025-07-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD: ECB's "Hawkish Pause" and Conflicting Macroeconomic Reports

The results of the ECB July meeting provided slight support for the euro. However, contradictory macroeconomic reports and anticipation of the outcome of the US-EU negotiations played a restraining role

Irina Manzenko 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The Euro Outsmarted the "Bears"

There was no "sell the fact" reaction. One of the reasons behind the recent EUR/USD rally was the expectation that the deposit rate would be held at 2% following

Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.