empty
12.05.2025 10:04 AM
GBP/USD. May 12. Trump's First Trade Deal

Good day, dear traders! On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday nearly completed a rebound from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3205, with a reversal in favor of the British pound and growth toward the resistance zone of 1.3344–1.3357. A rebound from this zone today would support the dollar and continue the decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. Bears took the initiative in the market but have very little strength, despite support from last week's news background.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure has recently been simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the "bullish" trend is transitioning into a "bearish" one. The pound's decline is still too weak to be a trend, but over the past three months, even such declines have been rare. Bulls will struggle to push above the 1.3425 level without new announcements from Donald Trump about imposing or increasing import tariffs.

The news background on Friday was again positive for bears. Earlier, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England meetings supported the dollar: the American central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged, while the British central bank cut rates. On Friday, it was announced that London and Washington had signed a trade deal, but traders showed little excitement. A few hours later, reports emerged that the final version of the agreement had not yet been signed and that most U.S. tariffs would remain in place. Thus, bears had another chance to improve their positions, but understandably, they didn't take it because it was more of a deal in name only. Trump needs this "deal" badly, as his three-month grace period is ending. If 75 countries don't sign deals by then, tariffs must be reinstated. Everyone knows how the U.S. economy reacts to tariffs. Trump likely doesn't want a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and continues to decline toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118. There are no forming divergences on either indicator today. The upward trend channel still indicates a "bullish" trend. The news background remains unfavorable for the bears, so I am not expecting a sharp decline in quotes yet.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 3,320, while the number of short contracts decreased by 1,956. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short contracts now stands at 29,000 in favor of bulls: 94,000 versus 65,000.

In my view, the pound still has prospects for decline, but recent developments may cause the market to turn around in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long contracts has increased from 65,000 to 94,000, and short positions have decreased from 76,000 to 65,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT reports show traders are not eager to buy the greenback.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

There are no scheduled economic events on Monday. The news background will not influence trader sentiment today.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart, or after two rejections from this zone with targets at 1.3265 and 1.3205. The second target was nearly reached. Buying will be possible upon a rebound from the 1.3205 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3344.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3205 to 1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 11, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline toward the 1.1645 level, while the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1712 was largely ignored by traders. A rebound from 1.1645 would

Samir Klishi 12:44 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 11, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633 and resumed its decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527. A rebound from

Samir Klishi 12:20 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Despite the potential for a correction, gold still has the potential to strengthen today, Friday, July 11, 2025.

XAU/USD, Friday, July 11, 2025. Although it appears to have corrected due to being held at Resistance 1, the continued strength of XAU/USD's technical and fundamental conditions provides an opportunity

Arief Makmur 08:00 2025-07-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 11, 2025

EUR/USD On the weekly chart, we observe a set of reversal signals: divergence, a trend shift in the Fibonacci time zone, and a price rebound from the intersection

Laurie Bailey 07:09 2025-07-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 11, 2025

GBP/USD On the monthly chart, the British pound reversed from the 161.8% Fibonacci reaction level, calculated from the upper boundary of the global 18-year price channel, immediately after

Laurie Bailey 06:46 2025-07-11 UTC+2

USD/CAD Forecast for July 11, 2025

USD/CAD The Canadian dollar had been consolidating for three days before today's upward breakout during the Pacific session. The price has already pierced the balance line with its upper shadow

Laurie Bailey 06:42 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 10, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move along a trajectory known only to itself. The 127.2% Fibonacci correction level at 1.1712 was once again ignored by traders. I still

Samir Klishi 12:21 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 10, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3527. The rebound was precise, leading

Samir Klishi 10:35 2025-07-10 UTC+2

GBP/JPY. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

On Thursday, the GBP/JPY pair is regaining upward momentum and shows readiness for further growth. The formation of an ascending channel confirms the stability of the bullish trend. During

Irina Yanina 10:22 2025-07-10 UTC+2

If the resistance level of 0.7964 holds back its upward movement, USD/CHF has the potential to weaken on Thursday, July 10, 2025.

USD/CHF, Thursday, July 10, 2025 In addition to rumors of a planned Fed interest rate cut and falling US government bond yields, USD/CHF weakened today. Key Levels 1. Resistance

Arief Makmur 06:47 2025-07-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.