empty
28.05.2025 09:47 AM
The Market Has Left the Bad Behind

History repeats itself. Markets breathed a sigh of relief and bought the decline in the S&P 500 after Donald Trump's threats of 50% tariffs on the European Union were replaced by a delay until July 9. The S&P 500 posted its fastest gains since the White House announced a 90-day postponement. Just like back then, investors found hope that the worst might be over—that the economy can withstand the current level of import tariffs, making the strategy of buying the broad index on pullbacks appear valid.

Donald Trump welcomed the EU's decision to schedule further trade talks. The U.S. President expressed hope that the EU will finally open its market to American goods and comply with Washington's demands regarding China. The Republican's social media posts acted as a catalyst for the S&P 500 rally, though they weren't the only factor.

The broad equity index was also supported by declining Treasury yields, positive macroeconomic data, and anticipation of a strong Q1 earnings report from NVIDIA. One of the tech sector's heavyweights is slowly recovering from April's sell-off, and strong results for January–March could boost both the stock and the broader market.

Performance of the "Magnificent Seven" Stocks – Chart Reference

This image is no longer relevant

At first glance, U.S. macroeconomic data seemed mixed. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index saw its largest increase in four years, while orders for business equipment dropped at the fastest pace since October. This is essentially the economy's response to the White House's trade policy.

Consumers appear to have felt relief after the 90-day deferral, while companies began to cut orders in April following a surge in March. Importantly, this slowdown is occurring more gradually than expected—one of the indicators that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing.

However, the tariff policy and the Federal Reserve's passivity raise concerns that things might get worse before they get better. UBS notes the surprising fact that the U.S. has now become a drag on global GDP growth, even though it usually leads during tough times. Add to that the Fed's reluctance to cut rates, and there's cause for concern about America's economic future. Recession cannot be ruled out.

This image is no longer relevant

If the economy continues to cool, investors will likely revisit concerns about elevated valuations in the S&P 500. The P/E ratio for the index stands at 21, compared to a 10-year average of 18.7.

Technical Outlook for S&P 500

On the daily chart, the break above resistance at 5895 became a buy signal. Holding above the fair value level of 5890 would support further long positions in the market. Conversely, a drop below this level and the support at 5815 would activate a 1-2-3 pattern, signaling a bearish reversal and an opportunity to sell.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

WTI. West Texas Intermediate. Traders Await NFP

Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remain in the middle of a three-day range. Prices are supported by hopes for the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-06-06 UTC+2

ECB Meeting Results and Christine Lagarde's Press Conference

The euro responded with a significant rise following the ECB's decision to cut interest rates. But why did this happen? Let's break it down. The key reason behind the euro's

Jakub Novak 10:54 2025-06-06 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 6th? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A fairly large number of macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday, but most of them will not interest traders. For example, the report on industrial production

Paolo Greco 10:11 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Overview for the GBP/USD pair on June 6, 2025

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, trading overall calmly and without any rush. There was no news for either the British pound or the U.S. dollar

Paolo Greco 05:47 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Overview for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Thursday, even when the results of the ECB meeting became known. It should be noted that there was no intrigue

Paolo Greco 05:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

The EU Economy Will Not Suffer, According to Lagarde

Today, a meeting of the European regulator took place, where the obvious and expected decision was made to lower all three interest rates by another 25 basis points. The decision

Chin Zhao 02:56 2025-06-06 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

During the European session on Thursday, the Japanese yen maintained stability, allowing the USD/JPY pair to hold above the key 143.00 level amid a moderate rise in the U.S. dollar

Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-05 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today the AUD/JPY pair is attracting new buyers. Recent Chinese data, including the private Caixin survey, showed a moderate acceleration in growth in China's services sector

Irina Yanina 11:36 2025-06-05 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair continues to decline. Fundamental factors support bearish sentiment, indicating that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains downward. Reports of a trade agreement between

Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-06-05 UTC+2

The Market Finds Good in the Bad

Markets have risen for the third consecutive day, interpreting the current situation as widespread trading uncertainty — far from a market crash. This allows for a calmer and more rational

Marek Petkovich 09:20 2025-06-05 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.