empty
16.06.2025 04:53 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 16: The Pound Feels No Resistance from the Dollar

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. To better understand what's happening with the British pound, it's best to switch to the daily timeframe. There, we observe a strong rally that began precisely on the day of Donald Trump's inauguration. Since then, we've seen at most three tiny corrections. In other words, the pound has steadily risen with hardly any pauses. Naturally, on the lower timeframes, the movement doesn't appear one-directional. Corrections still occur, sometimes lasting several weeks. However, that doesn't alter the fundamental fact—the dollar's value continues to decline.

On Friday, the pair's macroeconomic background was weak and irrelevant to traders. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June significantly exceeded forecasts. However, in the second half of the day, the dollar only fell as the market quickly realized that buying the U.S. currency amid escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East wasn't the wisest idea. As a result, the dollar's overnight growth was completely offset during the rest of the day.

In recent weeks, the pair has been moving more sideways than upward on the hourly timeframe. However, the uptrend remains intact even in this timeframe, and breaking through trend lines or channels currently holds little technical significance.

In the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Friday. The pair bounced twice from the Ichimoku Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. The first move gained only 12 pips, so traders could have remained in long positions by the time the second buy signal formed. The second upward move was stronger than the first, though still relatively weak. Nonetheless, a small profit could have been made from the single trade.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

COT (Commitment of Traders) reports on the British pound show that commercial trader sentiment has fluctuated continuously in recent years. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross and mostly hover near the zero mark. They are still close to each other, indicating an approximate balance of buy and sell positions. However, the net position has grown over the past year and a half.

The dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, so market makers' demand for the pound isn't particularly crucial at the moment. If the de-escalation of the global trade war resumes, the U.S. dollar could have a chance to rebound. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,400 BUY contracts and closed 9,000 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 16,400 thousand contracts over the reporting week—a significant gain.

Recently, the pound has strengthened sharply, but the reason is singular—Trump's policies. Once this factor is neutralized, the dollar may start to recover. But when will that happen? No one knows. Trump is still in the early phase of his presidency. What other shocks await in the next four years?

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

In the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD retains its upward trend despite consolidating below the ascending channel and trendline. The U.S. dollar again saw only a minor correction while the market focused on buying in the medium term. The Middle East geopolitical conflict could theoretically support the dollar, but we don't believe that will happen. There are no technical reasons to expect a decline—even on the 1-hour chart, let alone the 4-hour or daily charts.

Key Levels for June 16: 1.2981–1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3288, 1.3358, 1.3439, 1.3489, 1.3537, 1.3637–1.3667, 1.3741. The Senkou Span B line (1.3514) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3543) may also serve as signal sources. A Stop Loss should be set to breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day and should be considered when identifying trade signals.

No major events are scheduled in the UK or the U.S. for Monday. However, we believe that traders will remain tense and emotional throughout the day, which could lead to sharp and volatile price movements and frequent reversals.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
  • Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
  • Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
  • COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the European Session on July 21. Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports (Analysis of Yesterday's Trades). Pound Attempted to Recover

Last Friday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.3442 level

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:12 2025-07-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the European Session on July 21. Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports (Analysis of Yesterday's Trades). Euro Correction Is Nearing Its End

Only one market entry point was formed last Friday. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to see what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1654 level

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:11 2025-07-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Friday, but this movement had little meaningful impact. The downtrend in the British pound remains

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-07-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement after rebounding twice from the 1.1563 level

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-07-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair also traded with minimal volatility. Strangely enough, there was quite a lot of interesting data released yesterday

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-07-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded in a near-flat range with very low volatility (around 50 pips). After the storm

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on July 18: Bad News for the British Pound

The GBP/USD currency pair remained flat with minimal volatility throughout Thursday. The current decline halted around the 1.3369 level, and the technical picture now suggests that the dollar's rise

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 18: Calm After the Storm

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline on Thursday after an unexpected surge on Wednesday evening. Recall that on Wednesday evening, it became known that Donald Trump again wants

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on July 17: British Inflation Interests No One

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to decline throughout most of the day, until an inexplicable surge in the evening. Recall that on Tuesday, the U.S. inflation report

Paolo Greco 03:21 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 17: The Dollar Keeps Advancing

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade downward, but in the evening it suddenly surged upward. Once again, there were no clear reasons or grounds for the pair's

Paolo Greco 03:21 2025-07-17 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.