empty
24.06.2025 10:44 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on June 24, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday rebounded from the support zone of 1.3357–1.3373, reversed in favor of the British pound, and consolidated above the 1.3425–1.3444 zone and the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3527. As a result, the upward movement may continue towards the next resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633, from where the pound began its decline a week ago. Bears were unable to mount an attack for a long time, as the war in Iran is no longer a strong driver for the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation now indicates the completion of the recent "bearish" trend, which lasted for about a week. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave by just a few points, while the new upward wave easily surpassed the previous high. Over the past week, bears were supported by news from the Middle East, with the dollar being the main beneficiary of the conflict. However, after the U.S. carried out its own strikes on Iran, the dollar lost its appeal among traders.

On Monday, aside from geopolitical news from the Middle East, there was also a lot of economic data. However, this data had no impact on market sentiment. Business activity indices in the UK exceeded traders' expectations, yet the pound declined in the first half of the day. Business activity indices in the U.S. services and manufacturing sectors also beat forecasts, but the dollar declined in the second half of the day. Currently, the market is focused entirely on geopolitics. For instance, according to some reports, Russia may come to Iran's defense. Iran itself may continue to strike Israel and American military bases. Qatar and Iraq are also ready to join the war against Iran. The situation in the Middle East is highly tense, and no one yet understands how it will end.

Alongside these developments, traders will need to monitor speeches by Bailey, Lagarde, and Powell. While their rhetoric is likely to remain unchanged from their previous addresses, this cannot be guaranteed with absolute certainty.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, but the information background did not allow for a continuation of the decline. Bears managed to push the pair below the ascending trend channel, but even this did not lead to further downward momentum. At this stage, continued growth can be expected on both charts. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bullish" in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,794, while the number of short positions increased by 3,983. However, bears have long since lost their market advantage and currently have no real chances for success. The gap between the number of long and short positions stands at 43,000 in favor of the bulls: 106,000 versus 63,000.

In my view, the pound still has downside potential, but the events of 2025 have completely shifted the market in the long term. Over the past 3 months, the number of long contracts has risen from 65,000 to 106,000, while short positions have declined from 76,000 to 63,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and COT reports indicate that traders have little interest in buying the U.S. currency. Therefore, regardless of the broader news background, the dollar continues to fall amid developments surrounding Donald Trump.

News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:

  • United Kingdom – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (08:00 UTC).
  • United States – Speech by FOMC Chair Jerome Powell (14:00 UTC).

Tuesday's economic calendar includes two very important events. The impact of the information background on market sentiment may be significant throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.3425–1.3444 zone, targeting 1.3367–1.3373 and 1.3328. The first target has been reached. I recommended buying after a close above the 1.3425–1.3444 zone, targeting 1.3527. This target was also reached. A close above the 1.3527 level allows holding long positions with a target at the 1.3611–1.3633 zone.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3446–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

NZD/USD. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

The NZD/USD pair is currently trading above the psychological level of 0.6000; however, it remains vulnerable to further downside amid broad-based U.S. dollar strength. The U.S. Dollar Index is supported

Irina Yanina 12:00 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 9, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline, completely ignoring the 127.2% correction level at 1.1712. This level is currently not suitable for identifying trading signals. The euro's decline should

Samir Klishi 11:20 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 9, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell on Tuesday to the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the pound. This may signal

Samir Klishi 11:05 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Can 0.7939 withstand the temporary correction of the USD/CHF currency pair, Wednesday, July 9, 2025?

USD/CHF – Wednesday, July 9, 2025. Due to the USD's safe-haven support and global trade risks, although the CHF is quite strong, these conditions still have the potential to cause

Arief Makmur 07:12 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Sellers continue to dominate the NZD/USD commodity currency pair, Wednesday, July 9, 2025.

NZD/USD, Wednesday, July 9, 2025. Global risk sentiment regarding commodity currencies and New Zealand's cautious monetary outlook are putting pressure on the Kiwi's potential today. Key Levels 1. Resistance

Arief Makmur 07:12 2025-07-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 9, 2025

On Tuesday, the euro attempted a downward move but failed to reach support at the MACD line, stopping at the target level of 1.1692. The day closed with a white

Laurie Bailey 06:58 2025-07-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 9, 2025

Yesterday, the British pound tested the area around the daily balance line. This move revealed the weakness of support levels on the path toward the target level of 1.3414, which

Laurie Bailey 06:30 2025-07-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for July 9, 2025

USD/JPYThe USD/JPY pair appears to be completing the formation of a triangle. There are several possible scenarios. According to the main scenario, the pair is likely to test the upper

Laurie Bailey 06:25 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for July 8-12, 2025: buy above 1.1650 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

The eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, so we believe the euro could recover above 1.1680 in the coming hours and then reach 1.1718, where the 8/8 Murray is located

Dimitrios Zappas 18:58 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for July 8-12, 2025: buy above $3,285 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

If a break below 3,281 occurs, we could expect a bearish acceleration, and gold could reach the 3/8 Murray level at 3,242 and ultimately reach the bottom of the main

Dimitrios Zappas 18:56 2025-07-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.