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27.06.2025 09:52 AM
PCE Index Data Unlikely to Significantly Impact Market Dynamics (Potential for Renewed Growth in EUR/USD and Bitcoin)
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The easing of tensions in the markets, following a pause in the military conflict in the Middle East, supports the return of the previous paradigm—an increase in demand for stocks and cryptocurrencies, along with a weakening of the U.S. dollar and a decline in gold prices. Meanwhile, oil prices have stalled in anticipation of the outcome of the upcoming negotiations between Iranian and Israeli delegations next week.

For now, in the absence of major news from the Middle East, investors are focusing their attention on today's release of key inflation reports from the U.S. economy.

According to the consensus forecast, the annual Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is expected to rise to 2.3% from 2.1% in the previous reporting period. Its core value is also expected to increase from 2.5% to 2.6%. On a month-over-month basis, both headline and core readings are forecast to maintain their pace of increase at 0.1%.

What's particularly interesting is the forecast for personal income and spending, which are expected to decline—an overall negative trend that could help ease inflationary pressures, provided that Donald Trump's tariff wars don't instead accelerate inflation.

How Will Markets React to the U.S. Data?

I believe we shouldn't expect any significant changes. First, investors understand that it's unrealistic to expect the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts under current conditions. Fed Chair Powell and regional Fed presidents have repeatedly stated that the conditions for rate cuts are not yet in place.

Second, there is still uncertainty regarding the consequences of tariff wars—especially with China, with which a 90-day truce is currently in effect. Since the tariff issue remains unresolved, its potential impact remains unclear.

On top of these two major issues, the U.S. has become deeply entangled in the Middle East crisis, which is draining substantial resources to support Tel Aviv in its conflict with Tehran. It's evident that in negotiations, the U.S. will pursue its interests rather than a comprehensive compromise. The mindset of the American government—and its proxy, Israel—does not allow for mutually beneficial agreements. Such compromise can only come through outright defeat, which is not expected in this case. Instead, the situation is likely to shift into a slow-burning, decades-long conflict, as has happened before. This would keep crude oil prices elevated, supporting demand for shares in oil and energy companies.

Overall Outlook

I expect stocks and cryptocurrencies to continue rising today. Oil prices are expected to remain supported, while the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken on the Foreign Exchange market against major currencies.

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Daily Forecasts

EUR/USD

The dollar continues to show notable weakness, which supports upward momentum in the pair. The release of the PCE report is unlikely to cause major shifts in the pair's movement. Most likely, EUR/USD will resume its climb toward 1.1815 after consolidating above 1.1675. A potential entry level for buying is 1.1746.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has nearly reached the resistance line and remains in a short-term downtrend. A rise above the 108,011.00 level could trigger further growth. In that case, Bitcoin may increase to 110,388.00. A suitable buy level could be 108,288.40.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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