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03.10.2023 03:00 PM
AUD/USD: How deep can the fall be?
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As expected by the market, following today's monetary policy meeting, the leaders of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided not to make any changes to the parameters of the current credit and monetary policy, leaving the interest rate at 4.1%. However, they did not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes, stating, "some further tightening of monetary policy may be required."

Inflation is still high but has "already peaked," and according to the forecast, it will "continue to decline and to be back within the 2–3 percent target range in late 2025," as stated in the accompanying statement.

At the same time, the accompanying statement was moderately positive, mentioning that "inflation is coming down, the labor market remains strong, and the economy is operating at a high level of capacity utilization."

Nevertheless, the Australian dollar sharply declined after the RBA meeting, continuing its downward trend, including against the U.S. dollar.

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In our review from yesterday, we suggested that a break below the local low of 0.6394 could signal an increase in short positions on AUD/USD, which is still under pressure from strong fundamental factors.

The nearest targets here will be local support levels at 0.6360, 0.6335, and more distant ones at 0.6200, 0.6170 (2022 lows), and 0.6100 (the lower boundary of the downward channel on the weekly chart).

As we can see, events are unfolding according to our main scenario, and as of this writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6300 mark.

A break below it and the 0.6285 mark (local support level) will once again confirm our assumption of a decline to the levels of 0.6200, 0.6170 (2022 lows), and 0.6100 (the lower boundary of the downward channel on the weekly chart). It is worth noting that in March 2020, at the beginning of the fight against the negative impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, the AUD/USD pair dropped to 2008 lows near 0.5700, 0.5600, and 0.5500.

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It is unlikely that the pair will reach such lows in the near and medium term, and the first signal for the start of an upward correction could be a break above yesterday's low of 0.6360 and the short-term resistance level of 0.6375 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart), with confirmation coming from a break above the important short-term resistance level of 0.6402 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).

However, only after breaking the local resistance level at 0.6500 can we expect a higher correction with targets at medium-term resistance levels of 0.6590 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 0.6635 (200 EMA on the daily chart), and 0.6655 (50 EMA on the weekly chart). Only a break above the key resistance levels of 0.6985 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.7040 (38.2% Fibonacci level of the correction wave from 0.9500 to 0.5510) will lead AUD/USD into the zone of the long-term bull market.

Therefore, short positions remain preferable.

Support Levels:0.6300, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170

Resistance levels: 0.6335, 0.6360, 0.6375, 0.6400, 0.6420, 0.6445, 0.6454, 0.6470, 0.6500, 0.6560, 0.6590, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6655, 0.67 00, 0.6740, 0.6800, 0.6840, 0.6895, 0.6900, 0.6925, 0.7000, 0.7010, 0.7040

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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