empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
07.05.2025 09:28 AM
USD/JPY: Is Further Decline Inevitable?
Open trading account Open demo account

The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged during the monetary policy meeting on May 1. In the "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" report, the Bank lowered its forecasts for real GDP growth in both fiscal years 2025 and 2026 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs. However, these are preliminary forecasts based on certain assumptions. Meanwhile, it raised its forecast for core inflation in fiscal year 2025. Recall that inflation rose again in March from 2.6% year-on-year to 2.9%, and in the Tokyo region, it climbed from 2.9% to 3.5% in April, with core indexes also showing excessive growth.

This image is no longer relevant

Regarding monetary policy implementation, the Bank reaffirmed its intention to "raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary regulation." This has been a long-standing goal for the BOJ since the era of aggressive quantitative and qualitative easing, known as "Abenomics." Over time, significant side effects have accumulated, which need to be addressed. Normalization—this is the term—is the central task facing the BoJ. Without a rate hike, it cannot be achieved.

When Abenomics was launched in 2013, inflation also spiked, but this was primarily due to an increase in the consumption tax, and the effect proved temporary: within two years, deflation returned to Japan. The current price increase, however, is driven by different factors—primarily the pandemic, which paralyzed supply chains and led to global inflation. Every cloud has a silver lining: the current environment provides a convenient opportunity to mitigate the consequences of Abenomics, and all forms of normalization contribute to a stronger yen.

Naturally, Japan is also seeking ways to withstand pressure from the United States. Ongoing tariff negotiations reflect the U.S. desire to see a stronger yen. The market shares this view: the yen is expected to strengthen; otherwise, the talks may stall, which is a less acceptable outcome for Japan than tolerating a strong yen. Positioning supports this sentiment: according to the latest CFTC report, the net long position on the yen has reached $15.74 billion, and the implied price has again fallen below the long-term average.

This image is no longer relevant

After hitting a recent low of 139.90 on April 22, the yen entered a shallow correction but remained within a bearish channel, forming another downward impulse. We anticipate that in the second attempt, the support at 139.59 will not hold, leading USD/JPY to move toward the 127–129 range, which may serve as a final destination that satisfies all parties involved. The yen will strengthen, just as Trump wants, and by the time this range is reached, the BOJ will likely raise the interest rate, enabling it to pause again before the next hike.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina
18:12 2025-07-04 +02:00
1735
Fundamental analysis
NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina
18:08 2025-07-04 +02:00
1780
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina 18:12 2025-07-04 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina 18:08 2025-07-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Friday, the USD/CAD pair remains near a three-week low, trading below the key 1.3600 level. The U.S. dollar is struggling to extend its gains following yesterday's stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls
Irina Yanina 17:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market Celebrates a Victory

Financial markets responded positively to the release of U.S. employment statistics for June. Payrolls rose by 143,000, exceeding Bloomberg analysts' forecasts. April and May figures were revised upward
Marek Petkovich 10:15 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Next Week May Begin on a Positive Note for the Markets (Possible Resumption of Growth in #SPX and #NDX)

The U.S. labor market data, published by the Department of Labor, instilled cautious optimism among investors, extending the rally in U.S. equity markets, supporting the dollar, and weakening gold prices
Pati Gani 10:09 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market is Preparing for Another Shock

Just yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration would begin sending letters to trade partners on Friday, outlining unilateral tariff rates that, according to him, countries will
Jakub Novak 09:55 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Strong U.S. Employment Report Exceeds All Expectations

The U.S. dollar surged against a range of risk assets as the key figures in June's employment report convinced the Federal Reserve that there is no need to lower interest
Jakub Novak 09:49 2025-07-04 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. As previously mentioned, today is a public holiday in the United States, known as Independence Day. All banks and stock exchanges will
Paolo Greco 07:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 4: Reeves Cried — Did the Pound Collapse?

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded fairly calmly throughout Thursday until the start of the U.S. trading session. Recall that a day earlier, the British currency had plummeted by nearly
Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 4: Trump's Third Trade Deal Didn't Help the Dollar Either

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly throughout Thursday, until unemployment and labor market reports were released in the United States. However, we will discuss those reports in other articles
Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 2025-07-07 UTC--5
Update on US stock market on July 4
12:47 2025-07-04
Stock Markets
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-07-07 UTC--5
Next Week May Begin on a Positive Note for the Markets (Possible Resumption of Growth in #SPX and #NDX)
10:09 2025-07-04
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-07-09 UTC--5
The Market Celebrates a Victory
10:15 2025-07-04
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-07-17 UTC--5
Trading Signals for BITCOIN for July 4-8, 2025: sell below $110,610 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)
05:17 2025-07-04
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-07-17 UTC--5
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for July 4-8, 2025: sell below $3,350 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)
05:15 2025-07-04
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.