empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
27.06.2025 09:16 AM
The Market Is Off the Leash
Open trading account Open demo account

Greed has returned to the markets. While professionals warn about the need for caution amid geopolitical uncertainty, trade wars, and the state of the U.S. economy, retail investors are once again behaving as if they are unbridled. According to JP Morgan, after a brief lull, they bought $3.2 billion worth of U.S. stocks in the five days leading up to August 25. This has brought the S&P 500 within arm's reach of its all-time high.

Overvalued fundamentals and shallow market breadth are the reasons professionals prefer to stay on the sidelines when it comes to the broad equity index. The proportion of S&P 500 companies trading above their 200-day moving average has remained unchanged for an extended period. This suggests that a narrow group of issuers is driving the market — led by the tech giants.

U.S. Equity Market Breadth Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Amazon and Meta Platforms have announced substantial investments in artificial intelligence, and NVIDIA surprised investors with its expansion into cloud computing. Traders are expecting growth in corporate earnings, and combined with the Federal Reserve's readiness to ease monetary policy at least twice in 2025 and a still-resilient U.S. economy, this is giving a strong boost to the S&P 500.

In the four remaining FOMC meetings this year, the Fed may cut rates two or even three times. As early as July, two officials may vote to resume the monetary easing cycle — something that hasn't happened in 32 years. Such a division within the Fed would increase the likelihood of imminent stimulus, further strengthening the tailwinds for the S&P 500.

The White House is doing everything it can to support this rally. The U.S. administration has indicated that the tariff deferral period may be extended. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has announced upcoming trade deals between the U.S. and 10 major countries. All this is fueling greed. FOMO grips the market — fear of missing out on profitable opportunities — while the VIX volatility index continues to decline.

VIX Fear Index Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Professionals caution that the current FOMO resembles behavior typically seen in the final stages of a bull market. But no one is listening. Ultimately, big players were selling in April, while retail investors were buying the dip. And it's the latter who came out on top. Since the spring bottom, the S&P 500 has gained 23%, and the Nasdaq 100 — 32%. Tech stocks were in deep decline back then, but now they're shining — despite signs of a cooling U.S. economy.

This image is no longer relevant

The third estimate showed a 0.5% contraction in GDP for the first quarter. The trade deficit has widened, and continuing jobless claims have surged to their highest level since 2021. But when greed rules the market, such details are easily overlooked.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 bulls are ready to set new all-time highs. A breakout above the February peak at 6144 would allow them to add to current long positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina
18:12 2025-07-04 +02:00
1495
Fundamental analysis
NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina
18:08 2025-07-04 +02:00
1675
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina 18:12 2025-07-04 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina 18:08 2025-07-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Friday, the USD/CAD pair remains near a three-week low, trading below the key 1.3600 level. The U.S. dollar is struggling to extend its gains following yesterday's stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls
Irina Yanina 17:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market Celebrates a Victory

Financial markets responded positively to the release of U.S. employment statistics for June. Payrolls rose by 143,000, exceeding Bloomberg analysts' forecasts. April and May figures were revised upward
Marek Petkovich 10:15 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Next Week May Begin on a Positive Note for the Markets (Possible Resumption of Growth in #SPX and #NDX)

The U.S. labor market data, published by the Department of Labor, instilled cautious optimism among investors, extending the rally in U.S. equity markets, supporting the dollar, and weakening gold prices
Pati Gani 10:09 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market is Preparing for Another Shock

Just yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration would begin sending letters to trade partners on Friday, outlining unilateral tariff rates that, according to him, countries will
Jakub Novak 09:55 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Strong U.S. Employment Report Exceeds All Expectations

The U.S. dollar surged against a range of risk assets as the key figures in June's employment report convinced the Federal Reserve that there is no need to lower interest
Jakub Novak 09:49 2025-07-04 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. As previously mentioned, today is a public holiday in the United States, known as Independence Day. All banks and stock exchanges will
Paolo Greco 07:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 4: Reeves Cried — Did the Pound Collapse?

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded fairly calmly throughout Thursday until the start of the U.S. trading session. Recall that a day earlier, the British currency had plummeted by nearly
Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 4: Trump's Third Trade Deal Didn't Help the Dollar Either

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly throughout Thursday, until unemployment and labor market reports were released in the United States. However, we will discuss those reports in other articles
Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Top analytics

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 4th (Review of Morning Trades)
18:20 2025-07-04
Trading plan
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:58 2025-07-04
Forecast
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 4th (Review of Morning Trades)
18:16 2025-07-04
Trading plan
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:52 2025-07-04
Forecast
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:53 2025-07-04
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.